Mortgage Rate Outlook for 2026

Mortgage rates are expected to settle around 6.0–6.4% in 2026, according to NAR, Fannie Mae, and other major forecasters. The Federal Reserve’s policy path will play a key role in how quickly rates decline. 📉

What this means for the market:

📍 Most forecasts cluster in the low-to-mid 6% range

📍 Represents modest improvement from 2025

📍 NAR estimates a drop to 6% could unlock 5.5 million additional buyers

📍 Rates below 3% are unlikely to return in the near term

For buyers planning purchases in 2026, these levels provide a more realistic framework—with refinancing remaining an option if rates fall further in later years.

2026 Housing Market Forecast: Will The Market Find Its Footing?

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